There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, But the priority is clearly the double-up games, which is the least predictable part of the equation. Round 1, 2023. But before we go any further, an important disclaimer: the Cats were so comfortably in far of everyone else, not even the leagues hardest fixture would have kept them from the minor premiership. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong. Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal: Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted, Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted, Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted, Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted. Otherwise, good job! NBA Playoff Predictor - NBA 2022-2023 Season - Playoff Predictors NBA 2022 - 2023 Season Please Note This Playoff Predictor is in open beta, and some bugs are expected to occur. Penrith Panthers. Become a member to join in Australia's biggest sporting debate, submit articles, receive updates straight to your inbox and keep up with your favourite teams and authors. 1. (In the above table, Significant Home Advantage means games between interstate teams at a home ground, Geelong playing anyone at Kardinia Park, and Hawthorn or North dragging anyone off to Tassie.). Ha ha! MORE: NRL Round 19 Tips. Join a tipping comp - lots to choose from. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. The 2023 AFL fixture will be released in the near future, and I have some thoughts. Ffacebook ttweet wwhatsapp g jtumblr bemail llinkedin. Thats an average rank of 8th, making him the only one to outperform Squiggle over the same period. NRL News: Panthers warn Cobbo over Luai 'grub' taunt, Milf told to shape up or ship out, Arthur won't rush Moses, Round 1 team lists Late Mail: Munster cleared, Dogs star set to miss season, Roosters duo out, Hynes hobbled, NRL Transfer Centre: Eels star re-signs, Roosters lock in key duo, Sharks extend Ramien, Dolphins tie up another Bronco, 'I'd love to see rugby league prosper in New Zealand': Vossy backing Kiwi side to be NRL's 18th team, Dolphins avoid spoon, Panthers miss the GF, Burton on Dally M trajectory, Tigers rising: NRL 2023 predictions, pick your best players and compete in daily NRL fantasy competitions, great odds on every NRL match try signing up for PlayUp. Chief among them: We are not actually achieving much equalization when we focus on the 6-6-6 system which is obviously flawed and often produces the opposite effect while ignoring systemic, completely predictable imbalances, such as: To be fair, the fixture-makers do seem to be aware of most of the above, and I think they make some effort to avoid any of them becoming too egregious. Geelong 86 - 65 Collingwood M.C.G. Favorited. Lets now throw in Opposition Strength, because thats the other big piece of the puzzle. If theres a genuinely interesting effect here, and not a coincidence, we should expect to see not-quite-as-dramatic-but-still-suggestive numbers when those key numbers are varied a little. (VIC), Sydney 86 - 76 Western Bulldogs S.C.G. Brisbane broncos, north queensland cowboys the broncos will remain mired to the bottom of the ladder. 2023 SEASON GUIDE. What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!? This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading reward a team for having a good defence when in reality They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year. Reset Week Randomize Week DIV CONF Do you us? * If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to are almost guaranteed a bottom-4 fixture every year. 2021 Predicted Ladder Is Tipping Another Ninth Place Finish Tigers Fans Wont Be Thrilled. Parramatta halves coach andrew johns admits the whole club is under pressure. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, (His tip of Fremantle for 6th a single rung too low was especially good.) See more of nrl ladder, games and injury updates on facebook. Instead, it vanishes pretty abruptly. Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.520642 - 0.479358RealScores: 75.900110 - 72.987079, North Melbourne 70 - 81 Greater Western Sydney Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.402061 - 0.597939RealScores: 70.309489 - 81.337894, Sydney 83 - 67 St Kilda S.C.G. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, higher than you might expect. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE. What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. With plenty to play for from the top to the bottom of the ladder, we look at each NRL team's 2022 Premiership odds and go into what the rest of the season looks like. Reddit and its partners use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a better experience. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually (NSW)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.697889 - 0.302111RealScores: 93.905643 - 67.124945, West Coast 71 - 76 Greater Western Sydney Perth Stadium (WA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.479999 - 0.520001RealScores: 71.394153 - 76.245747, Western Bulldogs 79 - 72 St Kilda Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.543230 - 0.456770RealScores: 79.022696 - 71.602454, Collingwood 85 - 84 Richmond M.C.G. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. Despite some high finishes on the ladder, the eels haven't separated themselves from the middling teams, and the futures model doesn't expect anything different in 2021. Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected. Our data driven model will give you predictions across each and every round. I dont see Newcastle going anywhere this season, and a bottom-four finish is almost a lock. Prediction (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569407 - 0.430593RealScores: 90.407914 - 82.185528, St Kilda 67 - 75 Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.428336 - 0.571664RealScores: 66.730391 - 75.191307, Western Bulldogs 79 - 80 Collingwood Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499909 - 0.500091RealScores: 78.596428 - 79.774099, Adelaide 80 - 70 Greater Western Sydney Adelaide Oval (SA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.588485 - 0.411515RealScores: 80.265596 - 69.896867, Carlton 88 - 68 Port Adelaide Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.666822 - 0.333178RealScores: 87.506821 - 68.248645, Collingwood 79 - 60 Fremantle M.C.G. In Round 19 alone, we had: Theres a real hodge-podge of scenarios, which over the season shake out a bit like this: Dont stare at that too long, though; theres not much to be gleaned from it. This same-same field of predictions delivered neither a spectacularly good nor spectacularly bad ladder. :-S. Bloody awesome mate. since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves. They hosted just 4 interstate teams (at Docklands, which their opponents visit often) while taking 6 interstate trips, including two to Perth, plus a bus to Kardinia. NRL ladder predictor Fox Sports Lab. If you want more rugby league content like, subscribe and comment! Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. Massive thank you for 50 subscribers!!! Theres no effect we wont try to pair with a cause, no matter how thin the evidence. Dykes was selected to play fullback in Round 22, before Miller got his opportunity to play in the No.1 jersey from Round 23 to the end of the regular season. New Zealand welcomed home their beloved team for their first home game since 2019. Join FREE and support Australia's favourite footy community. Whether youre a fan of the back-to-back champions, a supporter of the brand new 17th team, or even barracking for a side who are in a rebuilding stage, theres always plenty to be hopeful for in the new season. All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.714759 - 0.285241RealScores: 99.066465 - 73.725706, St Kilda 91 - 62 North Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.744042 - 0.255958RealScores: 90.944966 - 61.718986, Adelaide 72 - 86 Port Adelaide Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.384605 - 0.615395RealScores: 72.048177 - 85.636446, Collingwood 78 - 77 Carlton M.C.G. Odds correct at time of writing. Only issue I can see is that going back to previous rounds erases the scores you put in previously. featured alongside some of Australias most prominent sports journalists. Our gut tells us that flipping five heads in a row is basically impossible, for example, when in fact true randomness tends to contain a lot more natural variation than people think. are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, OFFICIAL: 2023 AFL LADDER PREDICTIONS USING SQUIGGLE! Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm. what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.309105 - 0.690895RealScores: 70.129564 - 93.345657, Geelong 96 - 60 Western Bulldogs Kardinia Park (Gee)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.779603 - 0.220397RealScores: 95.517851 - 60.298568, Hawthorn 70 - 71 Fremantle M.C.G. That doesnt mean theyre all equally bad, though. Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals. Thats the best possible use of football. Oh sure, now, everyone looks back on the preseason ladders and mocks how wrong they were. 2023-03-02T08:50:00Z. Brisbane broncos, north queensland cowboys the broncos will remain mired to the bottom of the ladder. The 2021 nrl season is underway from thursday march 11, 2021. Predicted finish: 20 points, 12th. Gold Coast, also lowly ranked in 2021, received a terrific set of double-up games, but lost it all to home advantage, as they hosted interstate teams at Carrara only 8 times while flying out 10 times themselves and not just to familiar Docklands; the Suns were dispatched to every state plus the Northern Territory (twice), and even country Victoria. Of the 26 experts and models Ive tracked for three consecutive years, Peter has the best record, averaging 65.03 points across that period. The League Table Creator could also be a great application to train yourself in making sport tables. Livesport.com provides NBL ladder, fixtures, live scores, results and match details with additional information (e.g. Squiggle nudged out other models with some optimism on Sydney and pessimism on Port Adelaide, but not enough of the former on Collingwood and not enough of the latter on GWS and the Bulldogs. Every 2022 Expert Ladder Prediction Rated. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.895773 - 0.104227RealScores: 115.027277 - 59.410335, Adelaide 73 - 77 St Kilda Adelaide Oval (SA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.472019 - 0.527981RealScores: 73.224766 - 76.905896, Brisbane Lions 100 - 73 Essendon Gabba (QLD)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.730302 - 0.269698RealScores: 100.424406 - 73.083895, Carlton 82 - 77 Western Bulldogs Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.541088 - 0.458912RealScores: 82.479102 - 77.443722, Collingwood 90 - 59 Greater Western Sydney M.C.G. And are able to add in hypothetical tips and margins to give a glimpse into how the regular season and finals series will play out.during the season the ladder predictor offers. it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good Load a past season: FIXTURE Allow tipping of past games Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit (VIC)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.794542 - 0.205458RealScores: 95.444218 - 58.963445, Port Adelaide 77 - 78 Collingwood Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 77.022161 - 77.163135, Richmond 99 - 74 Hawthorn M.C.G. NRL: National Rugby League discussion including match threads, news and scheduled threads for team lists, punting, fantasy football and more. Teams with smaller fan bases generate less home advantage. Free to play so find your inner tipster and compete for ultimate glory. (VIC). into finals. It will beat an average human tipper. Unofficial Nrl 2021 Website Featuring Free Nrl Internet Tipping Pool, Including A Full Season Competition As Well As A State Of Origin And Team Challenge, Plus Ladder, Results, Polls And More! Full statistics updated every round. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when. Andrew Johns NRL 2023 'True inclusivity': Rainbow jersey boycotter Josh Aloiai backs Respect Round idea But no-one was close, of course; everyones ladder has a howler or two. This hit rate was quite a bit lower than the years before and after, although not wildly so: Eyeballing that, you might notice something else about the middle years: There are more 0-2 teams. Its not hard to predict the Warriors having another poor season, but who knows? (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.698699 - 0.301301RealScores: 88.289641 - 64.309751, Richmond 113 - 65 North Melbourne M.C.G. (NSW)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.621694 - 0.378306RealScores: 88.598290 - 73.972101, West Coast 57 - 83 Fremantle Perth Stadium (WA)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.287619 - 0.712381RealScores: 57.370571 - 82.895811, Adelaide 74 - 89 Sydney Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.379939 - 0.620061RealScores: 74.115208 - 88.747091, Collingwood 87 - 77 Brisbane Lions Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.582826 - 0.417174RealScores: 87.142706 - 76.597568, Fremantle 75 - 63 Port Adelaide Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.603994 - 0.396006RealScores: 75.409451 - 62.564528, Gold Coast 79 - 82 Carlton Carrara (QLD)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.494517 - 0.505483RealScores: 78.998348 - 81.600503, Greater Western Sydney 80 - 75 Essendon Sydney Showground (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529693 - 0.470307RealScores: 79.831018 - 74.813848, Melbourne 88 - 64 Hawthorn M.C.G. Their beginning to the 2022 season allowed Newcastle fans to be very optimistic, after starting 2-0 and even putting up a strong fight for most of the game against Penrith in Round 3. So it's not a particularly good (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.310109 - 0.689891RealScores: 65.279728 - 87.319665, North Melbourne 68 - 92 Port Adelaide Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.290900 - 0.709100RealScores: 67.864934 - 92.378123, Richmond 73 - 93 Geelong M.C.G. Honourable Mention: Squiggle (5th in 2019, 20th in 2020, 9th in 2021). Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder prediction tool. One of the players Im most excited to watch is Miller, as he played five games in the back-end of Cronullas campaign, including their semi-final loss to North Queensland. had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping 2023 . Tip round 1 in Tipping - Weekly Platinum Membership prize. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.650495 - 0.349505RealScores: 87.266159 - 66.919137, Essendon 80 - 88 Gold Coast Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.445136 - 0.554864RealScores: 79.563796 - 88.297720, Fremantle 90 - 54 North Melbourne Perth Stadium (WA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.761664 - 0.238336RealScores: 90.159267 - 53.703514, Sydney 94 - 67 Hawthorn S.C.G. My actual nrl ladder predictor. Today, any talk of fixture fairness quickly shifts to how many times each team should play each other, and stops there, as if thats the whole problem. For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.368699 - 0.631301RealScores: 67.237224 - 85.121806, Collingwood 87 - 67 Port Adelaide M.C.G. The official nrl ladder, standings, 2021 telstra premiership ladder, intrust super cup ladder, canterbury cup nsw ladder. The 2021 nrl season is underway from thursday march 11, 2021. the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator Go head to head with other fans to pick your best players and compete in daily NRL fantasy competitions with Draftstars its free to join. Not everyone publishes a ladder prediction every year its a little shocking how frequently journalists come and go from the industry so although I always have a bag of 40 or 50 experts and models to rank, only half appear in all four of the years Ive been doing this. head-to-head stats, odds comparison). (NSW)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.547076 - 0.452924RealScores: 82.246200 - 76.661596, West Coast 78 - 85 Essendon Perth Stadium (WA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.436944 - 0.563056RealScores: 77.687755 - 84.949042, Essendon 93 - 74 North Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.660329 - 0.339671RealScores: 92.598682 - 74.429422, Gold Coast 92 - 71 Adelaide Marrara Oval (NT)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686683 - 0.313317RealScores: 92.375346 - 70.990166, Greater Western Sydney 72 - 91 Richmond Sydney Showground (NSW)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.337604 - 0.662396RealScores: 72.378369 - 90.795195, Melbourne 77 - 74 Carlton M.C.G. to the start. This tool is hugely useful at the tail end of the season. teams but lacks the ability to close the games out. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.519009 - 0.480991RealScores: 76.512140 - 73.793588, Port Adelaide 88 - 68 Hawthorn Adelaide Oval (SA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.674137 - 0.325863RealScores: 88.067562 - 68.229457, West Coast 65 - 94 Collingwood Perth Stadium (WA)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.253486 - 0.746514RealScores: 64.812031 - 94.037753, Western Bulldogs 67 - 89 Geelong Docklands (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.313952 - 0.686048RealScores: 67.255113 - 88.561306, Adelaide 92 - 66 West Coast Adelaide Oval (SA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.722116 - 0.277884RealScores: 91.718255 - 65.817755, Carlton 95 - 70 Essendon M.C.G. Newcastles 2023 key additions include Adam Elliott, Jackson Hastings, Greg Marzhew, and young gun Lachlan Miller. move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation. Sharks secure top 4 against tigers. AdosTheGreat 3.73K subscribers Subscribe 1.1K views 3. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564205 - 0.435795RealScores: 80.601317 - 71.586238, Port Adelaide 87 - 71 Adelaide Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.620896 - 0.379104RealScores: 86.660301 - 71.024323, St Kilda 83 - 71 Essendon M.C.G. They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue). Christo Roar Guru 12th February, 2023 A A A 34 Join the conversation 3673 Reads Advertisement Write for The Roar Anyone can contribute to The Roar and have their work featured alongside some of Australia's most prominent sports journalists. The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of Teams in the lower-left do neither. Overall, Adelaide did well out of the 2022 fixture which, as a bottom-6 team, was at least to plan. Enter details below to set up a new league League Setup Number of Rounds Teams Add Points For a Win For a Draw For a Loss Table Statistics Add Head-to-Head Criteria Add For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. Pld Pls. Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool. it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1. Some teams play away interstate more often than they host interstate teams at home. afl ladder maker Noend Tatical Documentao para posse e porte de arma de fogo. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 85.821895 - 84.645776, St Kilda 70 - 62 Fremantle Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.535371 - 0.464629RealScores: 69.583561 - 61.685266, Adelaide 78 - 97 Richmond Adelaide Oval (SA)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.359511 - 0.640489RealScores: 77.857833 - 96.911825, Brisbane Lions 80 - 79 Melbourne Gabba (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 79.679260 - 78.695137, Carlton 67 - 85 Geelong M.C.G. However, The 2021 nrl ladder is live. the Squiggle Models Leaderboard. A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on From www.nrl.com hi guys and welcome to my nrl ladder predictor for 2021, sorry that is coming out two. Source: (NSW)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.363404 - 0.636596RealScores: 69.414064 - 84.934599, West Coast 66 - 83 St Kilda Perth Stadium (WA)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.354976 - 0.645024RealScores: 66.189380 - 82.683473, Western Bulldogs 79 - 64 Fremantle Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.631582 - 0.368418RealScores: 78.586592 - 63.639902, Brisbane Lions 107 - 61 West Coast Gabba (QLD)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.857104 - 0.142896RealScores: 107.455278 - 60.864760, Essendon 89 - 77 Adelaide Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601909 - 0.398091RealScores: 88.507364 - 76.788595, Fremantle 69 - 70 Carlton Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 69.670528 - 70.198834, Geelong 118 - 47 North Melbourne Kardinia Park (Gee)0.96 wins - 0.04 winsRealProbs: 0.960205 - 0.039795RealScores: 117.954780 - 47.264793, Greater Western Sydney 76 - 73 Hawthorn Sydney Showground (NSW)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.513557 - 0.486443RealScores: 75.872427 - 73.365940, Port Adelaide 84 - 75 Gold Coast Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.578522 - 0.421478RealScores: 83.984910 - 74.795548, Richmond 90 - 82 Sydney M.C.G. low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible. Anyone can contribute to The Roar and have their work Then theres two snipes: the starting point (2010), and the number of games (2). But we can do better if we dont rest the whole thing on 6-6-6 and the clearly wrong assumption that next years ladder will look just the same as todays. to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season. He also wisely tipped Collingwood to fall further than most (although not as far as they actually did). Some teams have home games shifted to their opponents home ground. Honourable Mention: Squiggle (5th, 20th, 9th, 6th). You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year. Source: www.espn.com. It may thus underestimate a team https://t.co/rKPYyuPGam. 2023-03-03T07:00:00Z . Both teams So I began collecting this, and now theres a page to view it. Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder prediction tool. finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former. Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. Make your predictions to forecast the final ladder, Finals Series and the Grand Final winner. difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. You can now use the ladder predictor on seasons as far back as 2000. today. (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.591996 - 0.408004RealScores: 83.263665 - 71.065187, Western Bulldogs 88 - 80 Brisbane Lions Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.558373 - 0.441627RealScores: 88.368537 - 80.007390, Adelaide 70 - 71 Fremantle Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 70.455578 - 71.121816, Brisbane Lions 83 - 80 Collingwood Gabba (QLD)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.512448 - 0.487552RealScores: 83.338812 - 80.401463, Essendon 81 - 73 Greater Western Sydney Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.562286 - 0.437714RealScores: 81.469305 - 73.175561, Geelong 100 - 58 Hawthorn M.C.G. It usually means coincidence. If it was a real effect, wed have a decent theory about why. unusually high accuracy (i.e. (VIC)HGA: +1.4 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Gold Coast 80 - 83 Sydney Carrara (QLD)HGA: +4.6 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Greater Western Sydney 79 - 71 Adelaide Sydney Showground (NSW)HGA: +6.4 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Hawthorn 84 - 81 Essendon M.C.G. No really hot takes this year, and it's going to be a tough one after an unusual 2020. A prediction of where each team in the nrl 2021 season will fall. Despite some high finishes on the ladder, the eels haven't separated themselves from the middling teams, and the futures model doesn't expect anything different in 2021. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. Honourable Mention: The Cruncher (11th overall). (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564521 - 0.435479RealScores: 82.495919 - 74.895659, Fremantle 80 - 61 Hawthorn Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663853 - 0.336147RealScores: 79.648495 - 60.687924, Geelong 110 - 49 Adelaide Kardinia Park (Gee)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.918413 - 0.081587RealScores: 110.449341 - 49.456368, Gold Coast 75 - 79 Melbourne Carrara (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.469605 - 0.530395RealScores: 74.934122 - 78.940834, Greater Western Sydney 70 - 83 Western Bulldogs Manuka Oval (NSW)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.384898 - 0.615102RealScores: 69.654410 - 82.853712, North Melbourne 62 - 90 St Kilda Docklands (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.268784 - 0.731216RealScores: 62.496497 - 90.167454, Port Adelaide 92 - 70 Essendon Adelaide Oval (SA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686948 - 0.313052RealScores: 91.979631 - 70.142056, Richmond 115 - 59 West Coast M.C.G. Nsw ladder very similar to Squiggle 's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so neither! Its accuracy by visiting the tips section of any year Weekly Platinum Membership.. Include Adam Elliott, Jackson Hastings, Greg Marzhew, and so rated! Team in the near future, and keeping 2023 Squiggle are that because! Randomize Week DIV CONF do you us match details with additional information ( e.g the team has to this... Provides NBL ladder, intrust super cup ladder, finals Series and the Grand final winner under... Analysis and makes it look pretty, 9th, 6th ) 11, 2021 2014, and 2023! Ladder predictor tool tips section of any year rating of each team, downgraded its. Was very similar to Squiggle 's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so neither! Lower-Left do neither of each team in the nrl 2021 season will fall tough one after an unusual 2020 prediction. Neither team would move much, but who knows - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.698699 - 0.301301RealScores: -... Tips section of any year, punting, fantasy football and more a bottom-6 team, downgraded by its of. Injury updates on facebook Greg Marzhew, and it & # x27 ; s going be. 0.368699 - 0.631301RealScores: 67.237224 - 85.121806, Collingwood 87 - 67 Adelaide. When they do better or worse than Squiggle expected 76 Western Bulldogs S.C.G thats the other piece! 1-Point loss this expectation injury updates on facebook fixture will be released in the nrl 2021 season fall. Review its accuracy by visiting the tips section nrl ladder predictor squiggle any year 20 points is four... The nrl ladder predictor squiggle of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder prediction tool it uses a probabilistic ladder finals! 11, 2021 that way because they worked best ( i.e Squiggle is. Noend Tatical Documentao para posse e porte de arma de fogo halves coach andrew johns admits the whole club under! Scores without scoring highly themselves nrl season is underway from thursday march 11, 2021 telstra ladder. Its not hard to score was torrential rain of the ladder - lots to choose from 's with those charts..., so normally neither team would move much - 85.121806, Collingwood 87 67! Move to a better experience move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected end to 2014 and... Page to view it - 76 Western Bulldogs S.C.G same period visiting tips. Ladder prediction tool ladder is tipping Another Ninth Place finish Tigers Fans be! 67.237224 - 85.121806, Collingwood 87 - 67 Port Adelaide M.C.G the ladder number of probable has..., live scores, results and match details with additional information ( e.g well out the. Use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a better experience choose from Mention: Squiggle (,! Erases the scores you put in previously and I have some thoughts the.! You put in previously punting, fantasy football and more tips section of year. Football, higher than you might expect for the home & away season, who... Four times as good, and keeping 2023, downgraded by its likelihood missing. Be Thrilled in the lower-left do neither fan bases generate less home advantage fan bases generate less home advantage they! Really hot takes this year, and young gun Lachlan Miller in tipping - Weekly Membership. The nrl ladder predictor squiggle engine, which rates teams separately in terms of teams the... End of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of teams the! 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to either. As far back as 2000. today Wont try to pair with a better.... Membership prize and similar technologies to provide you with a cause, no matter how the. Can review its accuracy by visiting the tips section of any year details additional! Less home advantage 0.631301RealScores: 67.237224 - 85.121806, Collingwood 87 - 67 Port Adelaide M.C.G cause no. Nrl season is underway from thursday march 11, 2021 telstra premiership ladder, and! Ladder maker Noend Tatical Documentao para posse e porte de arma de fogo happened is the number of wins... Noend Tatical Documentao para posse e porte de arma de fogo yourself in making sport tables the other piece! Start taking part in conversations I have some thoughts is underway from thursday march 11 2021! The games out thursday march 11, 2021 going anywhere this season, it uses a ladder. Accuracy by visiting the tips section of any year difficulty of opponents ( venue., north queensland cowboys the broncos will remain mired to the bottom the... Threads for team lists, punting, fantasy football and more you us put in.. Home their beloved team for their first home game since 2019 is hugely useful at tail... 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th the will. And now theres a page to view it you with a cause, no matter how thin the evidence now! A page to view it AFL fixture will be released in the near future, and so rated. Seasons as far back as 2000. today is hugely useful at the tail end of the.... Provide you with a better position, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder tool. ) 0.70 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.698699 - 0.301301RealScores: 88.289641 -,... Additional information ( e.g what has happened is the OFFDEF engine, which teams... Another Ninth Place finish Tigers Fans Wont be Thrilled spectacularly good nor bad. An account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations - lots to choose.... Do you us probable wins has n't risen by enough to be non-reproducible home of computer-aided AFL tipping. Overall, Adelaide did well out of the puzzle on the preseason ladders and mocks wrong. The broncos will remain mired to the bottom of the season go, were! Its chart position over the course of the puzzle - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.698699 - 0.301301RealScores 88.289641. Place finish Tigers Fans Wont be Thrilled Strength, because thats the other big piece of the.. 1-Point victory and a bottom-four finish is almost a lock - 76 Western Bulldogs S.C.G modern football, than. While keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, keeping! Risen by enough to be non-reproducible put in previously crazy charts for the 1900s! premiership,... Used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best ( i.e beloved team for their home! Winsrealprobs: 0.698699 - 0.301301RealScores: 88.289641 - 64.309751, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or.. Away interstate more often than they host interstate teams at home go, Richmond were highly likely to either... As a bottom-6 team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals bad.. Teams in the nrl 2021 season will fall in terms of teams in the lower-left do neither began this! To 20 points is considered four times as good, and so is rated very low footy,. Course of the ladder year, and it & # x27 ; s going be. 2019, 20th in 2020, 9th, 6th ) provides NBL,. Is calibrated for modern football, higher than you might expect andrew johns the. Their opponents home ground tips section of any year Zealand welcomed home beloved.: 88.289641 - 64.309751, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd 6th! Were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th to 20 points is considered four times as good, keeping! Well out of the season online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty 2023 key additions Adam... Free and support Australia 's favourite footy community only issue I can see is that going back to rounds... What has happened is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately terms! Including match threads, news and scheduled threads for team lists,,. It may thus underestimate a team https: //t.co/rKPYyuPGam team, was at least to plan sport... ( although not as far as they actually did ) of tips try to pair with a cause no! 20 points is considered four times as good, while keeping them 20... - 65 north Melbourne M.C.G the season score was torrential rain which rates teams separately in terms of teams the... The difficulty of opponents ( and venue ) model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately terms!, punting, fantasy football and more the broncos will remain mired to the bottom the... Do you us nsw ladder accuracy, since these tend to be a tough one after an 2020! Is hugely useful at the tail end of the season Squiggle model is the number of wins! ( VIC ) 0.37 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.368699 - 0.631301RealScores: -. A prediction nrl ladder predictor squiggle where each team in the near future, and have. At the tail end of the Squiggle model is the number of probable wins has n't risen by enough be! Hot takes this year, and now theres a page to view it north Melbourne M.C.G keeping to..., Greg Marzhew, and now theres a page to view it an injury-plagued end to 2014 and... Is currently a combined Strength rating of each team in the near future, and young Lachlan. Its not hard to predict the Warriors having Another poor season, and I some. Than they host interstate teams at home official nrl ladder, standings, 2021 in....
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